Diabetes
Transformers for Mixed-type Event Sequences
Event sequences appear widely in domains such as medicine, finance, and remote sensing, yet modeling them is challenging due to their heterogeneity: sequences often contain multiple event types with diverse structures--for example, electronic health records that mix discrete events like medical procedures with continuous lab measurements. Existing approaches either tokenize all entries, violating natural inductive biases, or ignore parts of the data to enforce a consistent structure. In this work, we propose a simple yet powerful Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) framework for modeling event sequences with flexible structure, using a single unified model. Our approach employs a single autoregressive transformer with discrete and continuous prediction heads, capable of modeling variable-length, mixed-type event sequences. The continuous head leverages an expressive normalizing flow to model continuous event attributes, avoiding the numerical integration required for inter-event times in most competing methods.
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There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED(Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMEDon real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.
Simultaneous Statistical Inference for Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning
This work presents the first theoretically justified simultaneous inference framework for off-policy evaluation (OPE). In contrast to existing methods that focus on point estimates or pointwise confidence intervals (CIs), the new framework quantifies global uncertainty across an infinite or continuous initial state space, offering valid inference over the entire state space.
Robust Satisficing Gaussian Process Bandits Under Adversarial Attacks
We address the problem of Gaussian Process (GP) optimization in the presence of unknown and potentially varying adversarial perturbations. Unlike traditional robust optimization approaches that focus on maximizing performance under worstcase scenarios, we consider a robust satisficing objective, where the goal is to consistently achieve a predefined performance threshold ฯ, even under adversarial conditions. We propose two novel algorithms based on distinct formulations of robust satisficing, and show that they are instances of a general robust satisficing framework. Further, each algorithm offers different guarantees depending on the nature of the adversary. Specifically, we derive two regret bounds: one that is sublinear over time, assuming certain conditions on the adversary and the satisficing threshold ฯ, and another that scales with the perturbation magnitude but requires no assumptions on the adversary. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms the established robust optimization methods in achieving the satisficing objective, particularly when the ambiguity set of the robust optimization framework is inaccurately specified.
Job titles of the future: Nature's drug designer
Chemist Tim Cernak is using two decades of experience in Big Pharma to try to save Gila monsters, loggerhead sea turtles, and many more creatures. In 2018, after nearly two decades working in Big Pharma, chemist Tim Cernak was ready to put his skills to a new use. For Merck, he'd developed precision therapies for cancer, HIV, and diabetes that could target disease while minimizing harm to healthy cells. But as a lifelong nature lover, he was increasingly concerned about the health of ecosystems and wondered whether his expertise could transfer. Animals, he learned, are often treated with pharmaceuticals formulated for humans, which affect them like old-school cancer drugs: Though intended to kill abnormal cells, they're indiscriminate in the harm they cause. For instance, the standard of care for frogs infected with a deadly skin infection is itraconazole, an antifungal that is often lethal for the amphibian.
How Turkey Hacked the Hair Transplant Industry
From specialized motors to the use of machine-learning algorithms, Turkey's billion-dollar hair-transplant industry is the result of a constant process of innovation. The astounding growth of the hair-transplant industry in Turkey is not just a medical tourism success story; it's also a tale of "hacked" medical equipment and algorithmic craftsmanship. From a biological and evolutionary perspective, human hair is often viewed as an unremarkable mass of keratin that still plays some important functions--protecting our scalps from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays and regulating our body temperatures--but, for the most part, is no longer essential to our survival. Yet, since ancient times, our subconscious perceptions of whether another person is healthy, young, or fertile have been based on visual cues such as skin radiance, the integrity of teeth, and hair density. Deep within our perceptions, hair has become one of the most powerful representations of our identity and self-confidence. Today, the global hair-transplant and restoration industry, which has evolved around this deep psychological and evolutionary need, has grown into a massive, multibillion-dollar industry. Various research firms have estimated the total size of the global hair-transplant market as sitting somewhere between $7.33 billion and $11.61 billion in 2024. And those figures don't include the underground economy.
Deep Optimal Individualized Treatment Rules for Bivariate Survival Outcomes via Adaptive Prediction-Powered Learning
In randomized trials involving multiple treatments, bivariate survival outcomes present significant analytical challenges for making decisions. This paper addresses the problem of deriving optimal individualized treatment rules to maximize the joint survival probability beyond fixed time points $(t_1, t_2)$ through deep neural networks, while accounting for right censoring. We propose a novel approach that models treatment rules via stochastic policies, coupling marginal accelerated failure time models via link function to capture bivariate dependence. To enhance robustness and effectiveness of decision making, we introduce an adaptive prediction-powered method that leverages auxiliary predictions from machine learning models.
Amazon Thinks the Future of Data Centers Depends on a Technical Problem It Just Solved
The tech giant says a breakthrough in data-center networking has dramatically accelerated the flow of information through its massive cloud infrastructure. Amazon says it recently achieved a major breakthrough in networking design--and has been quietly deploying the new technology in its data centers since late last year. The company claims it has significantly increased data speeds while reducing energy use, potentially giving the tech giant an edge as companies race to build ever-faster systems in the cloud. The new technology hinges on a "quasi-random" design that combines elements of traditional, structured data networks with the performance advantages of more random architectures. Researchers have explored random networks for decades, but the technology has never been successfully scaled.
Precision Physical Activity Prescription via Reinforcement Learning for Functional Actions
Lin, Gefei, Miao, Rui, Sacheck, Jennifer, Zhang, Xiaoke
Physical activity (PA) plays an important role in maintaining and improving health. Daily steps have been a key PA measure that is easily accessible with common wearable devices. However, methods are lacking to recommend a personalized optimal distribution of daily steps over a period of time for the best of certain health biomarkers. In this paper, we fill this void based on the data from the All of Us Research Program which includes months of step counts as well as repeated measurements of key health biomarkers. We develop a new offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to learn personalized and optimal PA distributions associated with cardiometabolic risk, where the action is a function representing the daily step distribution over a period of time. Simulation studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed approach over existing continuous-action RL methods. The learned optimal policy from the All of Us data generally suggests people take more daily steps and also follow a more consistent pattern of PA over time while offering tailored recommendations for subgroups in blood glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure, age, and sex.
Application of Deep Reinforcement Learning to Event-Triggered Control for Networked Artificial Pancreas Systems
Ikemoto, Junya, Maruyama, Satoshi, Hashimoto, Kazumune
This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based event-triggered controller design for networked artificial pancreas (AP) systems. Although existing DRL-based AP controllers typically assume periodic control updates, networked control systems (NCSs) require a reduction in communication frequency to achieve energy-efficient operation, which is directly tied to control updates. However, jointly learning both insulin dosing and update timing significantly increases the complexity of the learning problem. To alleviate this complexity, we develop a practical DRL-based controller design that avoids explicitly learning update timing by introducing a rule-based criterion defined by changes in blood glucose. As a result, decision-making occurs at irregular intervals, and the problem is naturally formulated as a semi-Markov decision process (SMDP), for which we extend a standard DRL algorithm. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method improves communication efficiency while maintaining control performance.